帕潘德里歐周一晚在國會宣佈對歐盟拯救方案進行公投,掀起新一輪政經危機。

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samuel
Posts: 2017
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:29 pm

帕潘德里歐周一晚在國會宣佈對歐盟拯救方案進行公投,掀起新一輪政經危機。

Post by samuel »

Greece Nears the Precipice, Raising Fear
The riot police in Athens on Sunday confronted protesters who oppose austerity measures.
The riot police in Athens on Sunday confronted protesters who oppose austerity measures.
Euro2-articleLarge.jpg (54.87 KiB) Viewed 4674 times
Slower economic growth throughout Europe, and probably in the United States. Huge losses by major European banks. Declining stock markets worldwide. A tightening of credit, making it harder for many borrowers to get loans.

As concerns grow that Greece may default on its government debt, economists are starting to map out possible outcomes. While no one knows for certain what will happen, it’s a given that financial crises always have unexpected consequences, and many predict there will be collateral damage.

Because of these fears, Greece is working frantically in concert with other European nations to avoid default, by embracing further austerity measures it has promised in return for more European bailout money to help pay its debts.

But some economists believe default may be inevitable — and that it may actually be better for Greece and, despite a short-term shock to the system, perhaps eventually for Europe as well. They are beginning to wonder whether the consequences of a default or a more radical debt restructuring, dire as they may be, would be no worse for Greece than the miserable path it is currently on.

A default would relieve Greece of paying off a mountain of debt that it cannot afford, no matter how much it continues to cut government spending, which already has caused its economy to shrink.

At the same time, however, there is a fear of the unknown beyond Greece’s borders. Merrill Lynch estimates that the shock to growth in Europe, while not as severe as in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, would be troubling, with overall output contracting by 1.3 percent in 2012.

While other countries have defaulted on their sovereign debt in recent times without causing systemic contagion, analysts weighing the numbers on Greece note that its debt is far higher, so the ripple effects could be more serious.

Total Greek public debt is about 370 billion euros, or $500 billion. By comparison, Argentina’s debt was $82 billion when it defaulted in 2001; when Russia defaulted, in 1998, its debt was $79 billion.

Economists also warn that a Greek default could put further pressure on Italy, the euro zone’s third-largest economy, which, though solvent, is struggling to enact austerity measures and find a way to stimulate growth. Moreover, Italy’s government debt is five times the size of Greece’s, and concerns about Italy’s ability to meet its obligations could grow if Greece defaults.

In a new sign of trouble for the country, Standard & Poor’s on Monday cut Italy’s credit rating by one notch to A, citing its weakening economy and limited political response.

“Orderly or not, we have no idea what the effect of a default would be on other countries, especially Italy,” said Peter Bofinger, an economist who advises the German Finance Ministry. “If there is just a 5 percent chance that this affects Italy, then you don’t want to do it.”

In part, what would happen in the wake of a Greek default would depend on whether European leaders could create a firewall to control the damage from spreading widely. That would require officials to come together in ways they so far have not been able to, because it is politically unpopular in some countries to spend many billions more bailing out Greece.

In particular, work on transforming Europe’s main financial rescue vehicle, the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, would have to be fast tracked so that it would be in a position to buy European bonds and, crucially, provide emergency loans to countries that need to inject money into capital starved banks. Differences over the best way to go forward so far have delayed approval of the expanded fund.

Bailing out the banks will be crucial if Greece either defaults or imposes a hard restructuring, whereby banks would be forced to take a larger loss on their holdings compared with the fairly benign 21 percent losses that they are now being asked to accept as part of the second, 109 billion euro bailout package set for Greece in June.

Merrill Lynch, in a recent report on the contagion effect of a worst-case situation in which a severe Greek debt restructuring results in other weak European countries having to take a hit on their bonds, estimated that overall European bank losses could be as high as $543 billion. French and German banks would be the hardest hit, because they are among the biggest holders of Greek debt.

“We believe losses could be substantially larger through deleveraging and second-round effects, contagion from failure of individual banks from or outside the periphery, exposures of the nonbank financial sector,” the Merrill Lynch report concluded.

While a 60 to 70 percent debt write-down seems extreme, it actually represents the market expectation, with most Greek debt now trading below 40 cents on the dollar.

A Greek default also would be costly to the European Central Bank, the Continent’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve. To help prop up Greece, the central bank is believed to have bought about 40 billion euros in Greek bonds at much higher prices than where they now trade. If the central bank were forced to take a major loss on its Greek bonds, it too would need a capital infusion. And the burden would most likely fall on Germany.

Analysts also say the seriousness of the crisis will depend on whether Greece stays within the euro common-currency zone or is forced to leave it, and return to the drachma as its national currency.

Willem Buiter, the chief economist at Citigroup, presents two possible default outcomes. In the first, Greece forces private sector creditors to take a loss on their bonds of 60 to 80 percent but manages to stay inside the euro zone by keeping current on the smaller amount that it owes its official lenders, like the European Union and the I.M.F.

While technically a default, the loss would not be an outright repudiation of Greece’s debt and the contagion could, in theory, be contained.

One big unknown revolves around the fact that, unlike other countries that have defaulted on their debts in the past, Greece does not have its own currency.

The potentially more dangerous default outcome is if Greece decides to leave or is forced to leave the euro, according to Mr. Buiter. Then, Mr. Buiter believes, the debt write-off would approach 100 percent and the effects on international markets could be much more serious.

Offsetting this, to some extent, is the fact that exiting the euro zone and re-adopting the drachma would enable Greece to devalue its currency versus the rest of Europe, and help it become more competitive, perhaps spurring economic growth.

For the moment, Greek officials are adamant that neither a default nor a euro exit and devaluation is in the cards. One senior policy maker in Greece’s Finance Ministry, who declined to be identified because of the delicacy of the matter, even offered to send his questioner a case of 2005 Dom Perignon Champagne if Greece ever repudiated its debt.

But close followers of Greece’s budget dynamics point to the fact that, despite the country’s deficit woes, by next year Greece is likely to have achieved a primary budget surplus, meaning that after taking out the high levels of interest it pays on its debt, it will be running a surplus.

History shows that a country tends only to take such a drastic step as cutting ties with its international lenders when it has tightened its belt enough to achieve a budget surplus, and it is only payments to its bankers that is keeping it in the red.

Such was the case in most of the recent country defaults, including Argentina, Ecuador, Indonesia and Jamaica, economists at the I.M.F. found in a paper published last year that addressed when a country finds its interest is served by default.

“My view is that it is very much in Greece’s interest to default now, as there is no prospect that it can repay its debt,” said Desmond Lachman, a former I.M.F. economist at the American Enterprise Institute. “If it is inevitable that an insolvent Greece is going to have to restructure, it would be better for Greece to do it now.”
Last edited by samuel on Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
samuel
Posts: 2017
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:29 pm

希臘在崩潰 公投拯救方案行刺歐盟 政府面臨軍變倒台

Post by samuel »

帕潘德里歐周一晚在國會宣佈對歐盟拯救方案進行公投,掀起新一輪政經危機。<br />路透社
帕潘德里歐周一晚在國會宣佈對歐盟拯救方案進行公投,掀起新一輪政經危機。
路透社
03wk17pn.jpg (41.89 KiB) Viewed 4597 times
希臘在崩潰
公投拯救方案行刺歐盟 政府面臨軍變倒台

希臘在崩潰!希臘債務危機深重,歐盟幾經商討,上周終拋出拯救方案,豈料希臘總理帕潘德里歐( George Papandreou)周一晚突然耍出神經刀,宣佈要公投方案,令歐債危機瀕臨災難邊緣。帕潘德里歐反口覆舌,不只歐盟痛恨,其執政聯盟更響起要求他退黨或辭職的呼聲,令他面臨倒台,恍如政治自殺。他前晚撤換整個軍方領導層,更令希臘軍事政變傳聞甚囂塵上。經濟、政治、軍事全動盪,希臘恍如像雅典衞城巴特農神殿底下崩潰的柱石。

帕潘德里歐聲言,公投歐盟方案,是為了令希臘留在歐元區取得民意授權,免民眾不時示威抗議要勒緊褲頭配合歐盟的緊縮政策。他前晚就跟內閣開會七小時,獲內閣力撐公投決定,內政部長說可能提前下月進行公投。但希臘近 60%人反對方案,在公投勢必說不,到時歐盟不提供經援,希臘無法還債,勢必破產和退出歐元區,如此重大決定交由公投,令國內外對他罵聲四起,指摘他沒有政治承擔。

這個決定更令帕潘德里歐眾叛親離,執政聯盟「泛希臘社會主義運動」( PASOK)不是要他退黨就是要他辭職,有議員更退黨以示不滿,令執政聯盟在國會 300席中,只保有多 2票的優勢。面對國會明天信任動議表決,若動議不獲通過,他就要倒台,國會就要提前大選,公投案也要束諸高閣。
令政局更添陰霾的是,帕潘德里歐前晚先發制人地撤換整個軍方領導層,包括總參謀長、陸軍、空軍和海軍將領,並把 16名軍官解職,換上效忠於他的軍官。國防部聲稱,這是軍方每兩、三年的例行改組,與當前政治危機無關。但反對黨質疑,軍方自 1974年還政於民後,民選政府為加強對軍隊控制,即使每幾年撤換軍方高層,卻從未試過一口氣撤換軍方整個高層。
左翼 SYRIZA黨就指,帕潘德里歐此舉「旨在成立一支高度政治化的武裝部隊,以便政府在政治危機時牢牢控制」,凸顯執政聯盟在瀕臨倒台之際,擔心軍隊政變。美國中情局的機密評估也認為,希臘軍隊政變不是沒有可能的。
金融界早前已戲言,解決希臘債務危機的最佳方法是軍事政變,因為歐盟必將軍事獨裁政權攆出門外,希臘將即時脫離歐元區,歐盟也毋須再為這個燙手山芋而煩惱。
英國倫敦經濟學院的諾貝爾經濟學獎得主皮薩里德斯說:「在 1974年之前,當政客在互鬥不休時,軍方介入說:『讓軍隊來管治,直至你們找出辦法』。自 1974年以來,民主恢復運作,但當國家陷入經濟危機時,卻傳出軍官被撤換,確實令人憂心。」
希臘經濟和政局亂作一團,最終又可能火燒連環船,令整個歐元區和歐盟着火。要知道的,歐盟領袖跟帕潘德里歐經過馬拉松談判,上周才達成讓債主撇除 50%債務換來 1,000億歐元( 10,697億港元)拯救希臘方案,但帕氏事先沒通報歐盟就宣佈要對方案公投,無疑向歐盟和政治盟友捅了一刀。

德國表明上周的拯救方案是希臘的唯一選擇。歐洲議會中間偏右聯盟德國議員韋伯則斥希臘「正在玩火」。英國財相歐思邦促希臘人作出正確決定,影子財相索萊伊形容「希臘人的決定,將在史冊上比作 1914年奧匈帝國王儲費迪南德遇刺的經濟刺殺案,影響將會超出希臘,以至整個歐洲」。
奧匈帝國王儲費迪南德當年在薩拉熱窩被行刺,最終引爆第一次世界大戰。今次希臘人若在公投投反對票,希臘退出歐元區,所有債務違約,歐洲部份銀行可能破產,葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利和愛爾蘭等歐豬國家也不會獲信貸,歐元區勢必成為另一場環球金融風暴的源頭,歐盟政治力量也面臨瓦解。
法新社/英國《每日郵報》/《每日電訊報》/《衞報》
samuel
Posts: 2017
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 1:29 pm

Re: 帕潘德里歐周一晚在國會宣佈對歐盟拯救方案進行公投,掀起新一輪政經危機。

Post by samuel »

讓債務危機重燃
民眾:總理瘋了嗎?
2011年11月03日

希臘政府的緊縮措施,人人受害,民眾怨氣冲天,示威浪潮一波接一波。正當危機暫告一段落,總理帕潘德里歐突然宣佈為歐盟拯救方案搞公投,民眾錯愕之餘,卻絕不讚賞,更炮轟他嚴重不負責任。

一名電訊公司僱員說:「他明明已同意方案,現在又公投,一切變回懸而未決的局面。我不曉得這是好是壞,帕潘德里歐並不笨,難道瘋了嗎?」
一名辦公室經理直言:「政府應該要採取行動、爭取結果,而不是拋出公投。」一名酒店接待員滿腔怨氣:「這是大災難,政府硬把我們推到深淵前,現在卻說我們有選擇:要不投票支持我們,要不承受後果──這是勒索,清楚不過!」

有位 52歲會計師直斥政客應羞慚。「一般百姓已犧牲很多,這些政客搞出爛攤子,現在還要勒索我們,我對他們真的厭倦透了。」

有些希臘人則主張,只要德國還債,希臘就脫困。事關二戰時納粹德國曾逼希臘借出巨款 4.76億舊馬克,至今一毛未還,加上又屠殺過希臘人。有德國經濟學家計算,這筆欠款相當於現在 700億歐元( 7,500億港元),足夠應付希臘未來五年赤字。
英國《泰晤士報》/《衞報》
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